Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda7a201c01efd88a01d48062b5ceffcce65757b7080a6c2ef01c75a7352e20ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7980…feadbacked No | 6c | 6,000$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 5c | 5,759$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.03 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 4,021$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.07 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 7c | 3,042$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.95 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed No | 5c | 3,040$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…cacebacked No | 5c | 2,210$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 6c | 2,100$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 4c | 2,029$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048b…0796backed No | 7c | 1,483$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 1,364$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 3c | 1,355$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 7c | 1,042$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 2c | 1,026$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…10d7backed No | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 6c | 720$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 12c | 569.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 7c | 471.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 7c | 444.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf347…346abacked No | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 355$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 4c | 354.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 3c | 353.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 7c | 334$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 7c | 301.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 59c | 284$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 7c | 243.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 7c | 173.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 10c | 135.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 11c | 133.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 110.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed No | 33c | 32.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?this page
- Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?No won
- Will Yan Xiong be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.