Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab3352c70e1f3d816efda8003700774086d14c7f4505e24872f857aaf00f666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri State Bearsof Missouri State Bears, New Mexico State Aggies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Missouri State Bears | 40c | 2,005$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.84 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New Mexico State Aggies | 58c | 1,909$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.6 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb101…5024backed New Mexico State Aggies | 34c | 1,454$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Missouri State Bears | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 14c | 1,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked New Mexico State Aggies | 72c | 732.52$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Missouri State Bears | 61c | 701.76$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.08 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Missouri State Bears | 22c | 600$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.3 | 434 | 50%217 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Missouri State Bears | 44c | 561$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed New Mexico State Aggies | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Missouri State Bears | 64c | 448.19$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.61 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Missouri State Bears | 40c | 369.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New Mexico State Aggies | 38c | 277.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed New Mexico State Aggies | 60c | 263.28$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.94 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed New Mexico State Aggies | 72c | 214.57$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Missouri State Bears | 72c | 211.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 74c | 199$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Missouri State Bears | 53c | 182.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Missouri State Bears | 28c | 177.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Missouri State Bears | 41c | 160.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Missouri State Bears | 35c | 155.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 38c | 139.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed New Mexico State Aggies | 75c | 133.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…653cbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 21c | 129.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked New Mexico State Aggies | 27c | 123.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri State Bears | 26c | 102.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 40c | 98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1981…3867backed Missouri State Bears | 72c | 94.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed New Mexico State Aggies | 64c | 88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Missouri State Bears | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed New Mexico State Aggies | 72c | 70.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 186 | 54.3%101 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Missouri State Bears | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed Missouri State Bears | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 233 | 31.3%73 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Missouri State Bears | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…8c27backed Missouri State Bears | 29c | 49.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Missouri State Bears | 61c | 49.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 181 | 67.4%122 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed New Mexico State Aggies | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 44.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed New Mexico State Aggies | 48c | 43.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New Mexico State Aggies | 58c | 41.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Missouri State Bears | 76c | 37.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed New Mexico State Aggies | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…ed3ebacked New Mexico State Aggies | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed New Mexico State Aggies | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggiesthis page
- Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggies: O/U 142.5Over won
- Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggies: O/U 143.5Over won
- Spread: New Mexico State Aggies (-5.5)Missouri State Bears won
- Spread: New Mexico State Aggies (-6.5)Missouri State Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.