Spread: New Mexico State Aggies (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2536726370e5ea82d8c96992b048c2031fe8a7ae369347a789cda6f5b0fc2ef7

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Missouri State Bearsof New Mexico State Aggies, Missouri State Bears
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $569,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $569,945

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569,986 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Missouri State Bears	52c	518,471$268,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250,347.06	359	45.1%162 W · 197 L	-24.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	183,979$88,310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88,309.92	691	42.8%296 W · 395 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked New Mexico State Aggies	48c	100,000$48,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48,000	136	49.3%67 W · 69 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	100,000$49,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49,000	217	54.8%119 W · 98 L	+15.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked New Mexico State Aggies	48c	40,000$19,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,200	906	45.4%411 W · 495 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	29,763$14,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,449.33	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed New Mexico State Aggies	50c	15,395$7,663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,663.46	746	49.2%367 W · 379 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Missouri State Bears	52c	12,550$6,526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,023.98	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	7,000$3,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,430	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	6,000$2,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,880	422	46.2%195 W · 227 L	-9.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	5,544$2,712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,712.24	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked New Mexico State Aggies	50c	5,279$2,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,635.58	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	5,000$2,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,404.38	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,450	67	58.2%39 W · 28 L	+5.4wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,960	115	55.7%64 W · 51 L	+8.1wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	4,000$1,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,920	170	50.6%86 W · 84 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed New Mexico State Aggies	51c	2,952$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	212	48.1%102 W · 110 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	2,720$1,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,305.6	212	62.3%132 W · 80 L	+34.7wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+37%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked New Mexico State Aggies	48c	2,400$1,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,152	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.6wins	+0.38per pick	48cpaid	+79.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked New Mexico State Aggies	48c	2,274$1,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,089.56	51	43.1%22 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	169	54.4%92 W · 77 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	123	58.5%72 W · 51 L	+10.3wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	1,642$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803.38	352	43.2%152 W · 200 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	1,411$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.81	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Missouri State Bears	51c	1,200$612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$588	137	35%48 W · 89 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc5…e2afbacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	834.36$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.44	72	34.7%25 W · 47 L	-9.7wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xca0f…780bbacked New Mexico State Aggies	48c	809.29$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.46	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked New Mexico State Aggies	48c	600$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	141	50.4%71 W · 70 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed New Mexico State Aggies	55c	549.19$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	59	59.3%35 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8025…c036backed New Mexico State Aggies	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-4.1wins	-0.22per pick	48cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x811e…8733backed Missouri State Bears	52c	400$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	308$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.08	350	50.3%176 W · 174 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed New Mexico State Aggies	51c	301.82$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.42	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-9.7wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked New Mexico State Aggies	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+3.0wins	+0.20per pick	53cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	1,487	43%639 W · 848 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed New Mexico State Aggies	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5ed…d157backed New Mexico State Aggies	23c	200$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f5a…9ecdbacked New Mexico State Aggies	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Missouri State Bears	53c	188.66$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.67	188	44.7%84 W · 104 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed New Mexico State Aggies	13c	183.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.92	198	48%95 W · 103 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	160.61$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.3	179	43.6%78 W · 101 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	120.25$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.85	100	49%49 W · 51 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Missouri State Bears	50c	105.83$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.36	974	47.9%467 W · 507 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	102.08$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	196	57.1%112 W · 84 L	+14.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked New Mexico State Aggies	48c	102.08$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	186	56.5%105 W · 81 L	+12.2wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Missouri State Bears	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	146	54.1%79 W · 67 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x135c…0c80backed New Mexico State Aggies	51c	96.08$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46b4…57ffbacked Missouri State Bears	51c	94.9$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.45	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed New Mexico State Aggies	51c	87.49$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.62	196	53.1%104 W · 92 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	83.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	237	54.9%130 W · 107 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa31…5cc1backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	82.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1de6…fdb3backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	82.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked New Mexico State Aggies	50c	80.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed New Mexico State Aggies	48c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	111	47.7%53 W · 58 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed New Mexico State Aggies	52c	61.54$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	326	52.8%172 W · 154 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked New Mexico State Aggies	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	176	61.4%108 W · 68 L	+17.3wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed New Mexico State Aggies	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	130	46.9%61 W · 69 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Missouri State Bears	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	1,162	55.2%641 W · 521 L	+25.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79df…277ebacked New Mexico State Aggies	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65b3…7fc9backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	49.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	123	41.5%51 W · 72 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd43…1808backed New Mexico State Aggies	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…ae72backed New Mexico State Aggies	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe726…958ebacked New Mexico State Aggies	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c8e…22c3backed New Mexico State Aggies	79c	38.04$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba69…b2debacked New Mexico State Aggies	49c	36.16$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	33.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	172	58.7%101 W · 71 L	+14.3wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd562…b6d1backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	63.2%36 W · 21 L	+8.4wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Missouri State Bears	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.19	294	42.9%126 W · 168 L	-11.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bdf…7f09backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	29.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+9.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d8…2a94backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	29.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed New Mexico State Aggies	49c	28.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	213	42.3%90 W · 123 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed New Mexico State Aggies	51c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba2…8f7cbacked New Mexico State Aggies	50c	20.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b98…e5d1backed New Mexico State Aggies	51c	19.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Missouri State Bears	53c	19.54$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.1	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+6.7wins	+0.15per pick	46cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New Mexico State Aggies (-6.5)this page
Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State AggiesMissouri State Bears won
Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggies: O/U 142.5Over won
Missouri State Bears vs. New Mexico State Aggies: O/U 143.5Over won
Spread: New Mexico State Aggies (-5.5)Missouri State Bears won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New Mexico State Aggies (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event