Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-07-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab61112b86cb8c21e629e31a20caeb2f629472130cb69f15bc1331602c7b557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 2c | 6,210$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…3254backed No | 43c | 5,100$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 28c | 3,819$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.14 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…fc37backed Yes | 57c | 3,771$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 58c | 3,624$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.6 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…b09bbacked Yes | 59c | 3,552$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.14 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…474abacked No | 41c | 2,886$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 64c | 2,828$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.13 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 58c | 1,589$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.54 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 42c | 1,401$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.94 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 41c | 1,006$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.53 | 233 | 46.8%109 W · 124 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 965.42$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.76 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 42c | 879.95$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…72e7backed No | 42c | 867.92$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac2…d2d4backed Yes | 58c | 847.48$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…fb43backed Yes | 59c | 800$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x383f…5631backed No | 40c | 643.73$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 42c | 631.06$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 41c | 568.03$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.89 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 42c | 552.31$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.97 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 72c | 508$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.15 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e92…5280backed Yes | 58c | 444.83$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.83 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…0307backed Yes | 58c | 424.14$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…03c1backed Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 57c | 334.18$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.7 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Yes | 59c | 260.17$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 44c | 259.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 60c | 248.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 42c | 223.77$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…0454backed Yes | 63c | 217.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 44c | 212.65$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed No | 13c | 209.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 42c | 199.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Yes | 57c | 175.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Yes | 57c | 162.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…5554backed Yes | 58c | 156.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…56b1backed Yes | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 22c | 112.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…a335backed Yes | 58c | 112.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 62c | 111.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 284 | 46.1%131 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 59c | 84.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 59c | 82.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 42c | 80.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 41c | 71.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…4c6abacked Yes | 57c | 70.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Yes | 62c | 64.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…42ccbacked Yes | 58c | 61.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 42c | 57.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 59c | 54.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Yes | 56c | 53.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…5a58backed Yes | 57c | 52.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c3…322bbacked Yes | 58c | 50.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 260 | 51.5%134 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 398 | 52.5%209 W · 189 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 58c | 49.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Yes | 56c | 45.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…d807backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…e3b2backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 60c | 41.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c7…2ca3backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6b…bc2abacked Yes | 59c | 35.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 42c | 35.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 273 | 60.8%166 W · 107 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Yes | 59c | 34.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf246…cbd4backed Yes | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…ccedbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c78…77f1backed Yes | 55c | 30.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 41c | 29.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Yes | 56c | 28.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…fdfcbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed No | 44c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 50 | 80%40 W · 10 L | +10.9wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Yes | 56c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 58c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 237 | 43.9%104 W · 133 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 59c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-07-16?this page
- Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will Vålerenga Fotball vs. Aalesunds FK end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.