TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof 3DMAX, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,726 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8ff…473dbacked Gentle Mates33c9,905$3,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,614.22458.3%14 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Gentle Mates35c6,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.9778639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed 3DMAX67c4,471$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.9829449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 3DMAX36c4,235$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.393,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0478…37c3backed 3DMAX63c3,535$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.219952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked 3DMAX40c2,898$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.991,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed 3DMAX55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.996450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Gentle Mates46c2,344$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.882,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Gentle Mates53c2,256$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.0124038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed Gentle Mates51c2,075$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.235953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 3DMAX45c1,911$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.776,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed 3DMAX34c1,867$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64014362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed 3DMAX66c1,447$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.716349.7%81 W · 82 L-19.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed 3DMAX58c1,404$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.7261034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Gentle Mates73c1,014$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.7523861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked 3DMAX58c1,000$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.52,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed 3DMAX53c900.91$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.4843455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gentle Mates38c811.05$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.152,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Gentle Mates54c809.45$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.4552837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked 3DMAX55c799.09$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.273,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 3DMAX63c778.41$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.244,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed 3DMAX65c769.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1651…470fbacked 3DMAX77c756.82$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.7510259.8%61 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked 3DMAX40c751.89$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed 3DMAX66c749.97$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.9855845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e0…708fbacked Gentle Mates38c689.41$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.413956.4%22 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked 3DMAX18c600$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11036645.6%167 W · 199 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…4103backed Gentle Mates71c581.46$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.622272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Gentle Mates71c564.86$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.863066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Gentle Mates38c510$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.252150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Gentle Mates53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23544939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked 3DMAX67c499.99$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9935744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed 3DMAX67c498.9$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.2637557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed 3DMAX56c486.21$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2846345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed 3DMAX52c480.5$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.048045%36 W · 44 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd10…abcbbacked Gentle Mates63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Gentle Mates37c462.37$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.297855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86df…7d27backed 3DMAX50c455.97$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3619947.2%94 W · 105 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked 3DMAX58c440.35$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.430348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 3DMAX56c429.25$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.474,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Gentle Mates33c405.96$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.991,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed 3DMAX48c389.8$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1882536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked Gentle Mates33c378.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.7922243.7%97 W · 125 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Gentle Mates31c321$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.4914151.8%73 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed 3DMAX65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20096545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed 3DMAX65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037850.3%190 W · 188 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed 3DMAX65c307$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5538835.8%139 W · 249 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked 3DMAX62c306$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.7637149.6%184 W · 187 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed 3DMAX32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9614545.5%66 W · 79 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Gentle Mates36c292.37$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1283543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 3DMAX66c282.56$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.834,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed 3DMAX65c265.35$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2839038.5%150 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a62…fc1abacked Gentle Mates35c250$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.513834.8%48 W · 90 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed 3DMAX65c249.98$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Gentle Mates33c242.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7949941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Gentle Mates37c242.77$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7735839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Gentle Mates50c229.27$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6740137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked 3DMAX46c224.8$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4114544.8%65 W · 80 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 3DMAX69c223.41$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.94,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed 3DMAX15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Gentle Mates29c200$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1422,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed 3DMAX10c199.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9516038.1%61 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed 3DMAX54c172$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8817644.9%79 W · 97 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed 3DMAX58c171.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Gentle Mates39c160$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.42,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed Gentle Mates63c150.09$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0321135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed Gentle Mates37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.529246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9929…15a8backed 3DMAX64c150$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.517163.7%109 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce1…49c7backed 3DMAX41c142.31$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5935147.9%168 W · 183 L-16.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 3DMAX51c131.39$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.092,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 3DMAX65c130.06$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.431,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Gentle Mates77c129.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4665662.3%409 W · 247 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed 3DMAX72c120.92$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.791,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Gentle Mates78c114.92$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4915069.3%104 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed 3DMAX11c109$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.582,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Gentle Mates45c107.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.391,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked 3DMAX52c103.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.112,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed 3DMAX39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4056738.8%220 W · 347 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed 3DMAX66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6617054.7%93 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed 3DMAX41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4130062.3%187 W · 113 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1912…def8backed 3DMAX48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51070%7 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+103.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed 3DMAX71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7193261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked 3DMAX67c99.78$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8539847.7%190 W · 208 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…52f4backed 3DMAX53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked 3DMAX62c94.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.832,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked 3DMAX59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.133459%197 W · 137 L+24.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cb1…9fbbbacked Gentle Mates59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.758534.1%29 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 3DMAX41c81.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.212,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked Gentle Mates56c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.615060.7%91 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 3DMAX72c77.31$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.382,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed 3DMAX67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508061.3%49 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked 3DMAX47c60.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.742,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21dd…e4f5backed Gentle Mates36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.418059.4%107 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab6…4880backed Gentle Mates34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8259354.8%325 W · 268 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Gentle Mates34c58.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.633,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked 3DMAX52c50.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.521,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked 3DMAX28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked 3DMAX37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.582146.3%380 W · 441 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa5…a94abacked Gentle Mates62c47.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.862544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37fb…d4dabacked Gentle Mates65c46.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.091478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick64cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.