Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7281fe7c5b773d4551a8d0c1cde9a0cc46ed2fc90e6a60b73e406f5b65ee41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 30,687$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 48c | 648.75$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.93 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 36c | 561$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 58c | 334.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 290.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 33c | 242.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 28c | 215.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.72 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 44c | 212.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 29c | 208.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.49 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 49c | 205.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 204.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 195$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 29c | 176$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 143.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 136.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 53c | 123.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 73c | 121.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 112$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 109$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 64c | 97.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 18c | 95.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 94.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 43c | 90.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 88.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 67c | 86.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 76c | 83.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 23c | 78.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 41c | 77.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked No | 55c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 71.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 75c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 66.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 21c | 60.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…34c0backed Yes | 21c | 59.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 63c | 55.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 51c | 46.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…8999backed Yes | 57c | 40.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 79c | 37.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 35.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 32.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 54c | 29.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 62c | 22.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 20.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 66c | 18.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 16.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.