TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,233

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,253 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaff3…6eccbacked No0c6,145$14 inLost-$13.638641.9%36 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ad4…6866backed No53c5,271$2,772 inLost-$2,772.1415949.1%78 W · 81 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes48c2,000$950 inWon+$1,0505,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes47c1,500$705 inWon+$7951,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes47c900$423 inWon+$47748653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Yes50c442.66$221 inWon+$221.3357753.2%307 W · 270 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes48c414.3$199 inWon+$215.4479247.5%376 W · 416 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed No50c400$200 inLost-$20010953.2%58 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes49c285.19$141 inWon+$144.558,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes47c149$70 inWon+$78.971,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No50c38.22$19 inLost-$19.112,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Yes50c38.22$19 inWon+$19.1135747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.