MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c420cd94e160fff4ece6ef29a4ad318d8d40fd9843ba6cf972dca7368be0b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 48c | 100,000$48,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,999.99 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 52c | 93,710$48,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,728.99 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 47c | 9,689$4,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,135.08 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 9,267$4,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,911.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 6,490$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 2,183$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 1,822$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.62 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 1,001$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.52 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 631$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.96 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 59c | 447.29$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.51 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 48c | 399$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 53c | 346.25$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.51 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 318.46$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 28c | 250.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 231$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 52c | 225.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 213.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 75c | 202.57$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 48c | 191.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 53c | 173.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 157.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 155.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Under | 52c | 152.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 52c | 144$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 142.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 49c | 137.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 48c | 125.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 117.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 48c | 104.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…8b94backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 60.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 51c | 55.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed Under | 53c | 46.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 74c | 40.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 39.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 52c | 39.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 53c | 37.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Under | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…cd2ebacked Over | 49c | 29.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Under | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…a156backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 19.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…9871backed Under | 53c | 19.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White SoxCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 15.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 16.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 17.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.