MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85555c053d9afa771deb20ae244fdbbfff7b81ada530c705f88c2a1d5ab31aa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 56c | 42,923$24,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,886.27 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 44c | 31,287$13,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,766.39 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 44c | 4,091$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 44c | 4,091$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 59c | 2,466$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 2,175$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 1,947$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.76 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 44c | 625.74$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.33 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Under | 44c | 217.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 42c | 160.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 44c | 160.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 44c | 138$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Under | 44c | 116.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Under | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 83.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…2fe4backed Under | 21c | 77.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 57c | 54.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Under | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 41c | 41.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 69c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 58c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White SoxCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 15.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 16.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 17.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.