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MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,605 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd5e…9040backed Over64c11,840$7,625 inWon+$4,214.291,89452.9%1,001 W · 893 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under38c10,863$4,127 inLost-$4,126.794,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Over37c10,222$3,782 inWon+$6,439.6844846.7%209 W · 239 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under63c9,828$6,188 inLost-$6,188.1811,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over37c1,583$586 inWon+$997.297,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Under63c1,111$700 inLost-$699.934864.6%31 W · 17 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+35.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under11c830.33$93 inLost-$92.924,53449%2,220 W · 2,314 L-41.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over44c513.55$226 inWon+$287.22,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Under58c503$292 inLost-$291.6916258%94 W · 68 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under63c372.75$235 inLost-$234.8358153%308 W · 273 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under9c255$23 inLost-$22.958,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under63c249$157 inLost-$156.871,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over39c199.56$77 inWon+$122.313,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under63c186.75$118 inLost-$117.6588550.4%446 W · 439 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Over39c179.49$70 inWon+$109.491,21349.1%595 W · 618 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over57c159.78$90 inWon+$69.388,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b25…edc5backed Under63c158.73$100 inLost-$1008643%37 W · 49 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-23.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under11c150.41$16 inLost-$15.9712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over37c148.67$55 inWon+$93.663,86642.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L+4.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under63c97.95$62 inLost-$61.7157252.1%298 W · 274 L+2.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b2…953bbacked Under35c95$33 inLost-$33.2510941.3%45 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Under61c92.77$57 inLost-$56.5246444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under63c66$42 inLost-$41.8694456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under63c42.27$27 inLost-$26.6321547%101 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over38c40$15 inWon+$252,44450.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Under62c40$25 inLost-$24.84360.5%26 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over47c30.8$15 inWon+$16.23,46751.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L+105.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49f0…285fbacked Under63c29.37$18 inLost-$18.58342.2%35 W · 48 L-9.7wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under63c21.41$13 inLost-$13.491,29256.8%734 W · 558 L+31.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed Under56c19.75$11 inLost-$11.0618244.5%81 W · 101 L-14.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Under63c18.97$12 inLost-$11.9532254%174 W · 148 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed Over64c15.7$10 inWon+$5.74456.8%25 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.