MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a3e2f35bf1e9a317407621291eb44a29683d4707e102126c5c6c69b278c2e40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 21,646$12,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,223.43 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 7,365$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 4,218$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.96 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 2,816$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 2,463$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.34 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 2,352$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 2,130$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 2,111$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.47 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 1,103$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 877$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 16c | 780.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 554.16$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.1 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Chicago White Sox | 43c | 472$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.2 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 397.25$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 297.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 225$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 219$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 199.49$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 189.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 138$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 116$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 111.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 99.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 96.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Chicago White Sox | 23c | 87.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 82.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 66.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 65.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 62.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Chicago White Sox | 30c | 61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 41.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Chicago White Sox | 46c | 37.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 37.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 35.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 28.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 26.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 24.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 15.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White SoxCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 15.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 16.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 17.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.