Champions League · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb9f607a9d11700e30cb58634730e09e3df8c7924e68fb647ed39d64bef2229b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 62c | 3,552$2,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.55 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Over | 46c | 3,000$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.22 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 2,441$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.48 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 27c | 1,307$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.78 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 26c | 1,019$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.89 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 70c | 478.57$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.57 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 58c | 388.24$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4ca1backed Under | 58c | 345.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Under | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…6a7cbacked Over | 36c | 243.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153d…108fbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…ba90backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5d…6011backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…9363backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…9a67backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 51c | 218.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 41c | 200.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Over | 45c | 193.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…ea48backed Over | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…5df3backed Under | 59c | 169.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 55c | 165.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Over | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Over | 46c | 54.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…681bbacked Over | 38c | 48.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb823…b1c2backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f6…2ad8backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Over | 42c | 34.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…c38fbacked Under | 58c | 33.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 55c | 29.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…5663backed Under | 62c | 28.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 27.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…9ff3backed Under | 58c | 27.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Under | 74c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 63c | 25.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…b9dcbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Under | 55c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Galatasaray SK (-0.5)Galatasaray SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.