Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbd6abc2d8440b462117616a1164f9b69b665750a2cf56181b132828b4ea766e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Fritz, Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49e0…9af1backed Fritz | 55c | 4,350$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.16 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Aguilar | 43c | 2,561$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.27 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…ae33backed Fritz | 57c | 2,501$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.28 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Aguilar | 45c | 2,227$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Aguilar | 42c | 2,138$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.91 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Fritz | 55c | 2,097$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.45 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Fritz | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Fritz | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.99 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Aguilar | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Aguilar | 42c | 994.94$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.52 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Aguilar | 29c | 969.7$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.21 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Aguilar | 45c | 916.39$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.46 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Aguilar | 45c | 666.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Aguilar | 45c | 617.11$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.7 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Aguilar | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked Fritz | 50c | 535.22$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.61 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Aguilar | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…b1e1backed Aguilar | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Aguilar | 42c | 416.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.14 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…939bbacked Fritz | 70c | 282.84$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…3e7ebacked Fritz | 58c | 279.31$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Aguilar | 16c | 246.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x876f…bbb9backed Fritz | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Aguilar | 44c | 199.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 379 | 44.6%169 W · 210 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Aguilar | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…efe7backed Fritz | 58c | 168.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Fritz | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36dc…531bbacked Fritz | 57c | 110.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Aguilar | 29c | 105.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Aguilar | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Aguilar | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…215dbacked Fritz | 57c | 84.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Fritz | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Fritz | 54c | 64.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…f622backed Aguilar | 46c | 52.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Aguilar | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Fritz | 58c | 42.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…98c4backed Fritz | 58c | 42.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Fritz | 58c | 40.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Aguilar | 29c | 35.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Aguilar | 43c | 29.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 181 | 47.5%86 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Aguilar | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Fritz | 55c | 24.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Aguilar (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida AguilarTaylor Fritz won
- Fritz vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Fritz vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs AguilarFritz won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.