Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Denis Shapovalov vs Yunchaokete Bu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe2852e6ee14ddc939cd117cfdd80e83502802e605f8f86594a7f4f47f6aa3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Shapovalov, Bu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Bu | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Shapovalov | 63c | 4,272$2,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.6 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shapovalov | 78c | 4,169$3,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.6 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bu | 13c | 3,293$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.54 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bu | 12c | 3,127$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.96 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Bu | 20c | 2,499$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bu | 9c | 1,539$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Bu | 28c | 1,296$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.04 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Shapovalov | 63c | 1,200$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Bu | 37c | 1,180$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.43 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Shapovalov | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Bu | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bu | 17c | 912.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.98 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Bu | 22c | 778.22$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.38 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bu | 17c | 770.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Shapovalov | 63c | 721.71$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.54 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Bu | 37c | 702.7$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Shapovalov | 64c | 684.85$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.95 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Bu | 17c | 461.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Shapovalov | 62c | 375.74$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Bu | 37c | 309.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bu | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bu | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Shapovalov | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Shapovalov | 63c | 202.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…c5c9backed Bu | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…6cc8backed Bu | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Shapovalov | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…05b1backed Shapovalov | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Shapovalov | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Bu | 18c | 148.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Shapovalov | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Shapovalov | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shapovalov | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc8…4d6fbacked Bu | 22c | 91.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Shapovalov | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Shapovalov | 67c | 74.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Bu | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3906backed Shapovalov | 76c | 64.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Bu | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…5a9fbacked Bu | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Shapovalov | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bu | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bu | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f78…f9dabacked Bu | 38c | 49.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Shapovalov | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2124…17e7backed Shapovalov | 64c | 45.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Shapovalov | 74c | 36.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Shapovalov | 63c | 35.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…5cc2backed Shapovalov | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Shapovalov | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…797fbacked Shapovalov | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…37d3backed Shapovalov | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 142 | 72.5%103 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Shapovalov | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ad…b803backed Bu | 38c | 27.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c50…14dfbacked Shapovalov | 63c | 26.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…59efbacked Shapovalov | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 295 | 19.7%58 W · 237 L | -15.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Shapovalov | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shapovalov | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…8211backed Shapovalov | 80c | 17.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 704 | 56.8%400 W · 304 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…be67backed Shapovalov | 63c | 16.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Shapovalov | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Denis Shapovalov vs Yunchaokete Buthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Shapovalov vs BuShapovalov won
- Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Bu (+1.5)Shapovalov won
- Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-2.5) vs Bu (+2.5)Shapovalov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.