Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc2cef51cc8250e0c1027339255f95d643bbc52227c693e2fce6f7290450d474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.08 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 69c | 800$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.26 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 708.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 30c | 600$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 38c | 319.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 17c | 247$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 43c | 199.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 41c | 113.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 14c | 110.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 32c | 99.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…357fbacked Yes | 64c | 99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 62c | 96.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 90.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 77.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 74.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 42c | 70.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 70.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 68.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 67.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 54.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa30e…cf53backed Yes | 36c | 41.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 60c | 32.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…64e2backed Yes | 46c | 32.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 59c | 30.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 59c | 28.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 56c | 25.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…d303backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 19.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 68c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.