Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29cea1a4eeea49f46207f372af49ec21cfec9f4bdcd4c8a0f6989d42c87cdf5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 295.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.51 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 79c | 290.33$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 38c | 261.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 230.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c2…ea48backed No | 66c | 204.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 74c | 162.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 150.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 10c | 149.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 137.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 136$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 65c | 127.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 123.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 121.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 107.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 94.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 21c | 92.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 32c | 91.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 87.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 53c | 83.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 78.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 80c | 77.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 26c | 72.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 71.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 68.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 72c | 67.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 63.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 30c | 62.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 61.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 31c | 57.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 28c | 56.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 53.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 31c | 52.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…5a48backed Yes | 29c | 51.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 50.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 48.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 40.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 40.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…64e2backed Yes | 65c | 38.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 45c | 32.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 76c | 31.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed No | 68c | 26.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 71c | 22.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 71c | 19.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 18.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 71c | 16.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.