NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4c0daa2ff7a8c5f7d6e06d0dad95d41a83afb2d1e122d074544346142a6574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Lakers | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked 76ers | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed 76ers | 46c | 5,444$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.23 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed 76ers | 49c | 5,007$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.91 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Lakers | 54c | 4,296$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.31 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed 76ers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 76ers | 49c | 3,951$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Lakers | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Lakers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 76ers | 46c | 1,657$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers | 49c | 1,431$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.3 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Lakers | 54c | 1,350$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers | 47c | 1,075$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Lakers | 51c | 1,039$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.22 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Lakers | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed 76ers | 50c | 519$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…07ddbacked 76ers | 60c | 440$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…837ebacked Lakers | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Lakers | 50c | 365$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…4362backed 76ers | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Lakers | 51c | 284.6$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.8 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Lakers | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers | 52c | 246.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Lakers | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 235 | 39.1%92 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed 76ers | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Lakers | 48c | 195$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed 76ers | 46c | 160.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Lakers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…dcf6backed 76ers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Lakers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Lakers | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Lakers | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Lakers | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Lakers | 53c | 54.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Lakers | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed 76ers | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…a1a1backed 76ers | 50c | 34.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Lakers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed 76ers | 47c | 30.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Lakers | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Lakers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Lakers | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)76ers won
- Lakers vs. 76ersLakers won
- Lakers vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Lakers vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Lakers vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Lakers vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Lakers vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Lakers vs. 76ers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Lakers vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.