Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc658ec676bc1af79c67a20710c51aa3f9f0885d68d22de7cc99a693300e87c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,603 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,929$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1038…fd48backed Over | 67c | 1,541$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 38c | 1,357$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 31c | 1,139$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.48 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 20c | 1,008$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 823.36$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.37 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…737ebacked Over | 80c | 706.25$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 460.06$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.23 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 446.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.29 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 73c | 345.06$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 25c | 299.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45e…6e29backed Under | 22c | 288.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…a651backed Over | 78c | 288.46$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 57c | 257$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 33c | 240.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 29c | 200.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 80c | 180$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 28c | 176.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…2391backed Over | 42c | 166.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 18c | 124.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 86.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 19c | 77.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 48c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 51c | 69.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 80c | 55.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Under | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 64c | 41.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e65…ff48backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…1a43backed Over | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 42c | 35.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 37c | 32.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Columbus Crew vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.