Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc82840c30798077acb2a7d85572fd0bde097ba8f1d32c61c669171afc63506b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 70c | 2,040$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 1,860$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.61 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.99 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…38e6backed Under | 64c | 1,136$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 21c | 1,048$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.62 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Over | 20c | 850$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 782.15$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…d82ebacked Under | 64c | 746.84$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.17 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…b254backed Under | 44c | 463$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 448.03$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.48 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 30c | 313$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…ae86backed Under | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 21c | 291$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.89 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 290.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.14 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 24c | 267.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 29c | 229.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 224$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 174.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 80c | 165$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 78c | 164$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…4cd8backed Over | 78c | 127.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Over | 76c | 127.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 29c | 103.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 45c | 83.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…8f49backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 78c | 63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 80c | 59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 79c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 22c | 51.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 33c | 51.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 57c | 50.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 40c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 21c | 47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +365.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Over | 43c | 46.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 79c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 42c | 42.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 78c | 41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…4037backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.