MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcc70dd2926e5be95014e1bddbaef2d1aea8613edfff2aa02ad04f1e8babe4fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 4,884$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 2,081$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 1,787$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.44 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 1,396$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 1,186$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 1,175$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.28 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 1,003$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 868.21$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 776.77$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.37 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 632.2$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.92 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 500.74$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…fdd4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 431.94$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 410.17$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 295.71$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 275$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 246.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 164.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 140.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 129.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 114.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 102.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 96.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed St. Louis Cardinals | 19c | 86.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 84.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 79.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 63.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 57.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 55.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 54.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…29a1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 47.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 47.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 45.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 45.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 43.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 37.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 35.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 34.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 30.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…7e2bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 28.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 28.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…2c2cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 26.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 16.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.