TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c718.46$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.863,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa94…3601backed Yes33c622.64$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.525125.5%13 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes3c443.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.173,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes4c425.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.881,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes3c404.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.134,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes7c355.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.511,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No65c331.97$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11521865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c319.45$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.684,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes33c306.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c236.02$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.982,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes34c229.54$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.71,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c226$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.584,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c221.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.326,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes6c215.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8158922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No58c213.88$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4579040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c199$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.465,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216e…4e32backed Yes21c186.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404065%26 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes12c173.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.191,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes11c167.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2713050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c167$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203727%10 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes32c143.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7337942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No79c137.49$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.861,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c134.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes41c132.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.345540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes36c131.59$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3727129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes43c115.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c109.44$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.453,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f86…0b92backed No55c108.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c105$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No60c104$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1337532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4238930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No54c94.4$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4264460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes43c89.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5511343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes43c88.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.029147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes35c85.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.810547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd371…838ebacked Yes43c76.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No65c75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed No54c72.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.923030.9%71 W · 159 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ab…3c91backed No60c71.87$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.654327.9%12 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes45c64.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2531219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No54c61.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No69c60.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes38c60.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7671031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.173,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c59.51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.093,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No60c59.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.748919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No76c58.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.811,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes42c57.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.071,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No71c57.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6819662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No55c56.7$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6814646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes21c54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3166758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes43c50.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.843327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c50.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.654,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2186952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7510…6cb0backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.54141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes33c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4215437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138725.3%22 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes40c49.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No68c44.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f02…baadbacked Yes45c42.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.171225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes25c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.512536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No75c41.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.428,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No56c40.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.772,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No57c40.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.182,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.217926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes46c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes38c33.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.742,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb35…0988backed No55c30.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.836456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.271,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No76c26.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.344465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes44c25.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2354656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.758856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No64c24.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.92,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No54c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.042,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No56c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1243848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No70c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.971159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.289951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.643663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No62c19.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.432,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f81…7ce2backed No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x680a…0a15backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.254533.3%15 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc4c…8c1fbacked No71c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.