Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd093c0257add00830c9793aa9a737260367ec92eba7bfefe062c862d7f470c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 718.46$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 33c | 622.64$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.52 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 443.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 4c | 425.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 404.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 355.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 65c | 331.97$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 319.45$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 33c | 306.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 236.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 229.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 226$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 221.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 6c | 215.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 58c | 213.88$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 199$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 21c | 186.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 173.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 11c | 167.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 167$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 32c | 143.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 137.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 134.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 41c | 132.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 36c | 131.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 43c | 115.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 109.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f86…0b92backed No | 55c | 108.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 54c | 94.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 43c | 89.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 43c | 88.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 35c | 85.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…838ebacked Yes | 43c | 76.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 54c | 72.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed No | 60c | 71.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 45c | 64.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 61.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 60.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 60.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 59.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 60c | 59.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 76c | 58.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 57.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 71c | 57.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 55c | 56.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 43c | 50.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 50.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 44.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…baadbacked Yes | 45c | 42.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 41.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 40.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 40.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 38c | 33.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 55c | 30.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 44c | 25.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 24.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 19.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…7ce2backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…8c1fbacked No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.