Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc366592347c905eb80c1fbf6435eb2ede74c854063845dbe2e8bea1fdce8b8af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 1,824$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.51 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 841.84$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 626.73$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 620.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 577.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed No | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 32c | 424.34$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.83 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 420.61$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 399.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.45 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 19c | 359.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 346.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 45c | 318.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.55 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 31c | 275.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.23 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 14c | 255.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.66 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 10c | 252.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 15c | 242.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.07 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 235.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 220.15$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 218.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 202.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 199$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 73c | 186.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 164.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 147.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 143.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 23c | 140.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…b8c4backed Yes | 12c | 136.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 75c | 134.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 64c | 114.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 66c | 112.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 27c | 112.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 107.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 107.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 105.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 105.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 60c | 100.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 35c | 89.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 85.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 29c | 84.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 23c | 83.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 24c | 82.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 77c | 74.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 30c | 74.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 74.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 46c | 68.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 29c | 60.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 57.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 55c | 53.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 35c | 53.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 35c | 52.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 39c | 51.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 31c | 51.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 48.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 43.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 25c | 42.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 29c | 40.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…baadbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 29c | 39.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 33c | 39.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked No | 64c | 31.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 64c | 31.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 48c | 29.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…2533backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 25.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 24.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 75c | 23.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 20.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 80c | 15.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.