Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd55f7d45755f2a4d6502a185e2d6d07b1ee162ab800b920a894e468e06d0635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,239$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.18 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 39c | 536.87$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 30c | 461.43$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 73c | 342.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 247$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 218.72$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 207.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 204.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 62c | 188.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 180.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 151.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c4…79dfbacked Yes | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 128.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 50c | 127.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 120.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 36c | 113.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 104.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 61c | 95.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 40c | 89.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 83.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 59c | 74.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 59c | 71.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 65.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 61.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 60.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 58.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 59c | 56.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 56.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 56.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 56.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…b7d7backed Yes | 54c | 50.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 48.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 46.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 39.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…8ebebacked No | 63c | 39.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…f17dbacked No | 48c | 36.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 34.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 33.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 32.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 29.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…1839backed No | 63c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 28.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 28.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 27.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…780ebacked Yes | 56c | 26.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 67c | 26.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 48c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…782dbacked Yes | 45c | 24.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…0402backed No | 47c | 23.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…5a95backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 16.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 66c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.