Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddb45a4cc5b50db1f2b15cb3dd3fa7dc4e556f112946061342ea2bbf88968315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 8c | 337.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 252.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 189.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 27c | 186.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 161.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 145$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 137.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed Yes | 27c | 134.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…2718backed Yes | 10c | 108.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 70c | 106.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…2a12backed Yes | 12c | 97.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 73c | 95.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 28c | 80.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 80c | 75.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 31c | 58.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 55.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 21c | 54.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 54.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 75c | 48.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 47.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa0…0759backed Yes | 26c | 43.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 75c | 43.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 80c | 42.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8934…fdb6backed Yes | 30c | 42.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 39.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 30c | 38.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 28.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 27.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 24.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 78c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 76c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…9a33backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.