Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaf542104a4a0e9bd94f14fca7c68cb80f3d0b4fd4a3d949c8a0b725343957c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 5c | 2,248$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 34c | 1,166$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.2 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 741.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 12c | 645.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 59c | 453.1$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 414.26$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.31 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 371$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 57c | 315.79$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 44c | 302.27$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 44c | 270$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 240$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 186$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 171.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 159.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 158.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 150.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 125.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 124.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 42c | 108.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 33c | 108.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 103$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 40c | 96.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 66c | 95.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 71c | 77.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 29c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 22c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 52c | 68.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 71c | 67.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 48c | 66.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 75c | 63.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 59.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 34c | 59.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 69c | 57.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 35c | 55.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 54.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 35c | 54.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 51.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 76c | 50.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 54c | 47.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 80c | 46.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 66c | 45.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 45.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 72c | 42.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 46c | 37.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 32.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 42c | 31.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 67c | 31.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 64c | 27.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 66c | 27.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 46c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 24.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 66c | 24.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 65c | 23.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 74c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…a172backed Yes | 79c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.