Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde49463d64913eefce7d0f8ad4b8cfa464e38a0f229a9173a0f2554b2d812a62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 1,064$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 62c | 892.63$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.72 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 484.24$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.37 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…f72bbacked No | 4c | 454.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 58c | 422.44$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.61 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 410.75$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 37c | 372.66$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 38c | 360.53$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.53 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 38c | 331.68$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.99 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 303.3$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.08 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 61c | 269.07$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 261.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 247.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.86 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 40c | 200$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 182.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 62c | 170.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 46c | 143.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 135.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 37c | 132.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 122.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 61c | 122.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 37c | 107.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 106.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 76c | 103.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 38c | 102.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 94.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 71.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 75c | 71.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 59c | 66.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 61.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 40c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 60.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 63c | 59.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 55.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 37c | 53.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 53.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 38c | 53.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 52.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 22c | 51.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 47.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 47.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…6824backed Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 54c | 42.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 63c | 39.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 51c | 39.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 38.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 32c | 37.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 37.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 37c | 36.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 43c | 34.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 63c | 31.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 29.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 28.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.