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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,039
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,039 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9314…db74backed No45c936$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.8530526.9%82 W · 223 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes57c580.78$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.9260936.8%224 W · 385 L-1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes58c510.51$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.7963733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No46c394.83$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.491,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No43c365.76$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.434,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes55c328.96$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4932846.6%153 W · 175 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes54c229.85$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7362960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56aa…9e31backed No54c211.59$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.591883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No45c204$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.218166.9%121 W · 60 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No72c203.16$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6888048%422 W · 458 L+41.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No46c171.82$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.981,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No47c170.25$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2410,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes19c170$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.954,70026.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L+64.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No43c136.67$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.584,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes55c136.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7570645.8%323 W · 383 L+16.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes56c133.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.991,15631.1%359 W · 797 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes46c130.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5529642.6%126 W · 170 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes57c120$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6833867.8%229 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No44c110.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.687,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6394…485fbacked Yes58c106.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c104.76$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.016,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes57c100.86$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.611,33550.9%680 W · 655 L-35.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29cd…f4c7backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+42.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5778255.4%433 W · 349 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes47c98.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.675,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes54c92.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.972,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes54c91.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6525158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No64c89$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0450846.1%234 W · 274 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No74c80.11$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6922160.6%134 W · 87 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked No42c77.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7844644.6%199 W · 247 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No43c77.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.441,42131.1%442 W · 979 L-93.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes56c75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.254,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No43c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7524248.8%118 W · 124 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No41c73.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.988660.7%538 W · 348 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes56c70.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7549449.2%243 W · 251 L-2.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No42c68.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7466521.8%145 W · 520 L-27.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes53c67.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3628142%118 W · 163 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes55c65.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.012,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes56c64.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,08038%410 W · 670 L-5.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c62.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.84,62758.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L-114.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.774,31353.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L+158.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.754,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.858850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No44c59.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.673,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes56c56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.526253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8189…a808backed Yes46c55.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.83447.1%16 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No46c55.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.052,18959.7%1,306 W · 883 L+26.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes57c55.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7726038.5%100 W · 160 L+1.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No64c54.58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.811,01451.6%523 W · 491 L+108.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3054656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No48c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.661,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes57c52.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9883542.4%354 W · 481 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed No64c50.04$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8311252.7%59 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.52,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.57767.5%52 W · 25 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes46c49.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,17840.6%478 W · 700 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes59c48.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5458247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c47.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9212,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fa…26ffbacked No78c46.15$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.084761.7%29 W · 18 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+38.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9eba…7ff0backed No44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.451361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No45c45.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2524158.5%141 W · 100 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee1…eeaabacked Yes59c44.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.17450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed No44c44.23$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.779661.5%59 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes42c44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257841%32 W · 46 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes50c41.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.953,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.63,83561.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a71…8dc2backed No42c36.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No46c35.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.242,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes54c35.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.320851.9%108 W · 100 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes44c33.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.291,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcdd…182dbacked No42c32.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+84.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes34c32.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1321331.9%68 W · 145 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No53c31.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No43c31.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8226557.7%153 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No58c31.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.212,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No43c31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.735,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No52c30.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.662,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes57c30.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.246,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No44c28.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.032,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes55c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.265,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes59c27.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0143947.6%209 W · 230 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No45c26.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.731,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No49c26.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.42,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.855,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.151,24461.7%767 W · 477 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d3…3bf2backed Yes59c24.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff16…c211backed No73c23.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.34785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc651…895bbacked No70c21.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.442035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1194162.3%586 W · 355 L-24.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.492761.7%572 W · 355 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes58c18.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7315926.4%42 W · 117 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b27…ff88backed No72c16.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7513654.4%74 W · 62 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked No67c15.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9523130.7%71 W · 160 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.