Fifa International · resolved market
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde6d14a3010da20e317488815fc9dc1f0f9a8cdb575e9d8b51b82eb172b40158
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd34a…78c7backed Yes | 4c | 17,725$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 137 | 21.2%29 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 4c | 9,118$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.58 | 361 | 23.5%85 W · 276 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 4c | 4,054$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,981$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…5e20backed Yes | 4c | 1,857$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,660$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…68b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…8c97backed Yes | 4c | 1,351$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 23.6%38 W · 123 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…67d2backed Yes | 5c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…0353backed Yes | 3c | 881.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…6342backed Yes | 4c | 810.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…d14bbacked Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 276 | 37.7%104 W · 172 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…b472backed Yes | 3c | 710$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…9178backed Yes | 4c | 555.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…0228backed Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 9.3%7 W · 68 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…ed2bbacked Yes | 4c | 458.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…cd79backed Yes | 6c | 309.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…5b93backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 177 | 27.1%48 W · 129 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes | 15c | 167.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 27.2%34 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goalsthis page
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assistsNo won
- Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assistsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shotsYes won
- João Félix: 1+ assistsNo won
- João Félix: 1+ goalsNo won
- João Félix: 2+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 1+ shotsYes won
- Luis Díaz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 2+ shotsYes won
- Luis Díaz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Luis Díaz: 3+ shotsYes won
- Luis Díaz: 4+ shotsYes won
- Luis Suárez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Luis Suárez: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.