João Félix: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc86890afd7b1f6b57aa74e9f7f62ac1d614970221af8edb01fe5837049aa036

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,207

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,323 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	76c	2,890$2,207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$683.2	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Yes	25c	1,029$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.32	278	20.1%56 W · 222 L	-17.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd61f…c6a6backed No	77c	499.98$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	128	75.8%97 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked Yes	23c	404$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.92	188	43.1%81 W · 107 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d9…5442backed Yes	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	314	35.7%112 W · 202 L	-11.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f2…b82bbacked Yes	24c	329.83$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.16	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No	75c	270$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.5	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa8…ea63backed Yes	22c	257.73$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.43	76	36.8%28 W · 48 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…df0ebacked Yes	23c	251.24$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cc…cf38backed Yes	15c	206.25$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	136	36.8%50 W · 86 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No	77c	190$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.7	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	76c	136.79$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.83	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x845a…5606backed Yes	23c	110$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f7…27b7backed Yes	23c	108.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	176	38.1%67 W · 109 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	198	23.7%47 W · 151 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd520…0c5fbacked Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	116	40.5%47 W · 69 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd7c…ddb4backed Yes	25c	88$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+24%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1897…2a42backed Yes	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	404	35.6%144 W · 260 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	19c	73.06$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cec…a0abbacked Yes	25c	46.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	160	42.5%68 W · 92 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b9b…fc85backed Yes	25c	44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	270	51.9%140 W · 130 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb5…ae3dbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x069e…961bbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No	78c	22.82$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.92	53	86.8%46 W · 7 L	+9.6wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

João Félix: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event