Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3454dec189ad15ebe0a0663d4ab5719a9f602c3d3e3c525c4a6e12f6b5365579

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,573 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5452…d448backed No	77c	3,239$2,494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$744.89	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Yes	23c	2,197$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	278	20.1%56 W · 222 L	-17.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0aa8…ea63backed Yes	21c	822.77$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.55	76	36.8%28 W · 48 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	79c	808.26$639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.73	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No	78c	804.64$624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.25	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b90…52aebacked Yes	24c	632.42$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No	77c	550$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.08	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Yes	23c	521.74$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	149	46.3%69 W · 80 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd61f…c6a6backed No	78c	500$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	128	75.8%97 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	78c	479.54$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.41	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…f666backed Yes	23c	435.2$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	95	30.5%29 W · 66 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No	79c	399.98$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86	288	73.3%211 W · 77 L	+21.7wins	+0.08per pick	66cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	23c	367.22$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.43	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked No	76c	338.36$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.21	182	48.9%89 W · 93 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	79c	316.05$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.5	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes	19c	268.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	549	17.9%98 W · 451 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d9…5442backed Yes	23c	260.87$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	314	35.7%112 W · 202 L	-11.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed No	77c	236.65$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.43	95	63.2%60 W · 35 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x323b…df9abacked Yes	22c	221.83$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	79	19%15 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf58e…a0b0backed Yes	24c	208.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	196	43.4%85 W · 111 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f2…b82bbacked Yes	23c	189.91$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.76	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95a6…b568backed Yes	22c	139.23$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.63	59	37.3%22 W · 37 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ede…5212backed Yes	24c	125$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	111	55.9%62 W · 49 L	+8.2wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	78c	120.63$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.67	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes	23c	108.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	181	28.2%51 W · 130 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes	24c	105.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	125	27.2%34 W · 91 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bfd…a57ebacked Yes	20c	101.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	239	50.2%120 W · 119 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	198	23.7%47 W · 151 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	79c	88.86$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.51	722	47.2%341 W · 381 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes	24c	87.5$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	150	41.3%62 W · 88 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e89…5ec5backed Yes	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	169	35.5%60 W · 109 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	23c	65.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f4c…f3bfbacked Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	164	18.9%31 W · 133 L	-7.4wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed No	75c	46.56$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.64	129	36.4%47 W · 82 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No	79c	44.95$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	454	72.9%331 W · 123 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	78c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	77c	20.04$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.61	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event