TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liam Broadyof Liam Broady, Ioannis Xilas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Ioannis Xilas18c4,812$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.748,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed Ioannis Xilas23c4,000$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.984537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Liam Broady69c3,108$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.1811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Ioannis Xilas30c3,013$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.781,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49a…ff17backed Ioannis Xilas36c2,807$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Liam Broady70c2,065$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.673537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ioannis Xilas32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.973,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Ioannis Xilas10c1,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.91028.8%9 W · 93 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Ioannis Xilas26c1,926$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.311,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf12…76debacked Liam Broady80c1,185$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.42742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Ioannis Xilas8c1,118$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.243,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Liam Broady74c1,078$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.385,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Ioannis Xilas27c1,076$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4285348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Ioannis Xilas27c1,076$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4265952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Liam Broady70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30072452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Ioannis Xilas33c837.42$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.454,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d99…9675backed Ioannis Xilas38c794.12$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015530.3%47 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee99…ffcabacked Ioannis Xilas12c791.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.541216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd546…657bbacked Ioannis Xilas7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019410.3%20 W · 174 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Ioannis Xilas14c701.89$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.484,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f1…dcbebacked Liam Broady66c686.59$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.113554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Liam Broady66c629.77$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.022,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Ioannis Xilas32c573.54$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18547854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ioannis Xilas29c522.69$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.587,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Liam Broady67c505$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.4547857.9%277 W · 201 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Liam Broady67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16553657.8%310 W · 226 L+35.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb3…f5b0backed Liam Broady67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16546957.6%270 W · 199 L+32.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Ioannis Xilas34c500$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.652,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Liam Broady72c416.65$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.931,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Ioannis Xilas8c406.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.641,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4def…06e6backed Ioannis Xilas3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.445117.6%9 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Liam Broady65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14037944.6%169 W · 210 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Liam Broady76c360.94$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.981,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Ioannis Xilas28c350.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2363…a20dbacked Liam Broady71c303.38$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3811028.2%31 W · 79 L-9.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4c0…22ebbacked Ioannis Xilas17c300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.540527.2%110 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Ioannis Xilas28c297.55$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.317,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x092a…8577backed Ioannis Xilas20c294.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609943.4%43 W · 56 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5efd…a583backed Liam Broady66c269.47$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.091275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Liam Broady71c246.26$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4265157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Liam Broady71c219.25$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2584968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Ioannis Xilas20c195$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Liam Broady71c187.32$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3264350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Ioannis Xilas25c185.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.743,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a9…7ae1backed Ioannis Xilas23c170$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Ioannis Xilas19c169.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7196945.9%445 W · 524 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe324…9189backed Liam Broady71c159.15$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1520664.1%132 W · 74 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b1…ca10backed Ioannis Xilas37c158.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9715544.5%69 W · 86 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Ioannis Xilas10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1539238.8%152 W · 240 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Ioannis Xilas35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Ioannis Xilas30c143.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5744949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Ioannis Xilas35c143.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.251,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Liam Broady71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8536349.6%180 W · 183 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Liam Broady71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8569253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Ioannis Xilas25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3575312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Ioannis Xilas22c138.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.954,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Ioannis Xilas9c136.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.882,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5036…6c08backed Liam Broady74c135.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.225550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44f9…3dcabacked Liam Broady77c135.06$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.069643.8%42 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Ioannis Xilas24c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.285449.6%424 W · 430 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Ioannis Xilas26c128.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4578840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eac…9b93backed Ioannis Xilas14c128.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.158331.3%26 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x297e…612fbacked Liam Broady78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Liam Broady80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2516867.9%114 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Liam Broady59c120.05$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9739035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Liam Broady76c118.25$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.021,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ioannis Xilas16c116.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.179,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Liam Broady70c116$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3842359.1%250 W · 173 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3191…e118backed Ioannis Xilas14c114.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614829.1%43 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Liam Broady73c110.51$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.526,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Liam Broady69c110$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.17150.7%36 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d78…a4ccbacked Liam Broady64c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.633055.8%184 W · 146 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Ioannis Xilas33c109$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.472,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Ioannis Xilas31c108.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3436264.6%234 W · 128 L-1.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Ioannis Xilas25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2566831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Liam Broady72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Liam Broady67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3333352.6%175 W · 158 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23ea…672bbacked Ioannis Xilas32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0813…41e1backed Liam Broady72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2837158.8%218 W · 153 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb96…1f59backed Ioannis Xilas26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Ioannis Xilas19c89.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.981,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0149…2f04backed Liam Broady73c88.77$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.972286.4%19 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick74cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Ioannis Xilas21c88.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.554,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Liam Broady70c88.44$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.531,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Liam Broady68c87.79$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.792,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Ioannis Xilas24c83.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.831,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Liam Broady75c83.6$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6356070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Ioannis Xilas30c82.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.951339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Liam Broady62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6550958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Liam Broady74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Liam Broady65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9294255.8%526 W · 416 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Liam Broady72c76.39$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.39683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Ioannis Xilas28c75.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.926345.6%120 W · 143 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x974b…cc9abacked Liam Broady71c69.1$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.04366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Ioannis Xilas15c66.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.132,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Liam Broady69c63.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.789859.7%536 W · 362 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb897…94b8backed Liam Broady74c62.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x387f…70a8backed Liam Broady71c62.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.057562.7%47 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Ioannis Xilas28c56.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Liam Broady74c54.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.293,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.