Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf073b8d53ac37629ca13c990510375c6486d2f73c702fcf77598b601070ec85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Macarthur FCof Macarthur FC, Wellington Phoenix FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Macarthur FC | 8c | 6,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,750 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Macarthur FC | 7c | 1,098$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.37 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Macarthur FC | 10c | 1,019$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.31 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…98c3backed Macarthur FC | 9c | 814.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +306.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Macarthur FC | 5c | 540$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Macarthur FC | 5c | 525.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 40c | 390.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.17 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Macarthur FC | 19c | 335.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.37 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Macarthur FC | 27c | 307.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.37 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Macarthur FC | 5c | 284.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Macarthur FC | 68c | 177.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Macarthur FC | 52c | 150.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Macarthur FC | 78c | 125.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Macarthur FC | 44c | 115.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 32c | 77.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Macarthur FC | 30c | 62.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Macarthur FC | 44c | 59.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 38c | 58.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…aa62backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 37c | 56.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…e7cbbacked Macarthur FC | 80c | 49.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 55c | 49.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x673c…d452backed Macarthur FC | 80c | 41.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 38c | 38.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 56c | 29.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Macarthur FC | 66c | 29.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…a1ecbacked Macarthur FC | 66c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Macarthur FC | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.