Australian A League · resolved market
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fd5f4a2e852f0eee0c9ee73985601e0cb0bc4aa037ad67cfda4c7155ddaa4ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9ea…af0cbacked Under | 0c | 33,288$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 67c | 19,983$13,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,594.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 13,244$4,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,388.21 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 63c | 2,111$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.62 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 2,032$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.03 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 34c | 1,567$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.25 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 20c | 930.12$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…d107backed Over | 65c | 782.69$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 34c | 647.93$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 66c | 597.52$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 35c | 588.02$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 33c | 527.72$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 74c | 527.46$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.45 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 14c | 505.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 35c | 491.53$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.49 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…ce6abacked Over | 78c | 480.73$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 37c | 468.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 37c | 468.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 33c | 400.97$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…7773backed Over | 61c | 395.77$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 28c | 329.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 66c | 296.85$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 67c | 292.6$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 33c | 290.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 275.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 65c | 274.32$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 259.14$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 61c | 246.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 37c | 229.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 66c | 216.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 66c | 200.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 74c | 195.84$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 36c | 159.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 155.03$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 33c | 145.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Under | 33c | 127.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 77c | 123.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Under | 17c | 116.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…0f12backed Over | 71c | 110.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 37c | 109.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 26c | 106.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…44febacked Under | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 36c | 99.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 78c | 90.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 33c | 87.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 36c | 80.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…0b75backed Over | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 33c | 75.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 35c | 73.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 34c | 49.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Under | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 40c | 46.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 61c | 43.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 34c | 41.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 38c | 40.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 67c | 37.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x876d…1327backed Under | 34c | 36.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Under | 33c | 36.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 34c | 33.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 58c | 31.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked Under | 38c | 31.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9761…9070backed Over | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Over | 65c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Over | 67c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.