UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf26e32ed3a917d8bef559af893153f59108ed50eb9b94aef699e32b252e9c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,113 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 31c | 1,700$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.99 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 66c | 1,410$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.67 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 78c | 679.97$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.89 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 59c | 556.79$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…3286backed Yes | 67c | 462.36$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 72c | 429.83$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 61c | 329.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…46d6backed No | 45c | 327.41$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd1…cfb5backed No | 49c | 300.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 34c | 287.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…5392backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 28c | 253.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked No | 39c | 208.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 38c | 188.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 19c | 159.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 66c | 147.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…f0e3backed No | 50c | 141.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…e850backed No | 39c | 121.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38f…8e46backed No | 32c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 65c | 92.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 27c | 81.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…be77backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…c3f0backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Yes | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…7a69backed No | 39c | 64.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 29c | 55.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…99f3backed No | 30c | 50.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked No | 44c | 34.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…5af8backed No | 52c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fe…e022backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…8fa8backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 62c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…9c01backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 73c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…a97fbacked Yes | 71c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)Movsar Evloev won
- Will Lerone Murphy win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Movsar Evloev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.