TailMyPicks
Market

UFC · resolved market

O/U 4.5 Rounds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,434 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777d…5143backed Over72c157,154$113,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,003.094847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under28c150,000$42,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,999.9916244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over71c21,556$15,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,254.2711758.1%68 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Under29c18,967$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500.373860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under32c17,175$5,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,458.0229133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under28c11,498$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,234.518848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67d6…b04bbacked Over68c10,510$7,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,363.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick65cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over70c7,500$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.9937152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae84…fd9dbacked Over72c3,561$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.11862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Over67c3,216$2,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.65775.4%43 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under30c3,116$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.724461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under30c3,029$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.79636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over71c1,771$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.4711761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Under28c1,770$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.576738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked Over68c1,083$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.372171.4%15 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+35.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa32…e0dabacked Under29c1,034$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Under29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Over69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Under29c861$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.693435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over69c749.91$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9710763.6%68 W · 39 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over72c738.06$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.666653%35 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Under29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1452755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under31c388.6$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4610949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over71c308$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3236755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5f…6851backed Under35c288.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Under32c285.97$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.753948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Under31c280.7$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.974250%21 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Under32c263.28$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.251850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Under31c248.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.911315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-75%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under31c237.88$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7619230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Over70c233.99$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7890553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Over67c179.1$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.131855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Under29c171.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.841650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Over72c163.72$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8418644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Under32c158.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.14742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Over66c141.42$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.372454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over69c140.61$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5942254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x861b…d8cabacked Under29c139.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.444139%16 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f2…a659backed Under31c137.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over72c128.01$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.846553.8%35 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Over72c125$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x35e1…f41dbacked Over69c107.55$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.851241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb89b…a39dbacked Over72c106.64$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.241650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc838…1263backed Under33c102.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under29c96.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286355.6%35 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Under38c87.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.612941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb9…1641backed Under30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7117…4339backed Under31c81.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da5…be77backed Over67c79.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.56955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Over44c75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3510928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Under38c71.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70a…caf5backed Over70c71.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb20…40a6backed Over67c70.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32c…ff08backed Over72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Under38c69.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.333650%18 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc59d…64adbacked Under31c64.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x399c…6191backed Under32c62.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206653%35 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf151…24c7backed Under32c62.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc8…47d0backed Under29c62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.981050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c50…7f4bbacked Under32c60.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Under37c60.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.212951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Under31c57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8319418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Under30c56.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.871353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87eb…456ebacked Under31c53.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b05…7b7dbacked Under31c51.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf4…3f9bbacked Under39c51.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Over69c50.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.641369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5dc…0f05backed Under29c48.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+70.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e6…47e7backed Under29c48.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x514e…a604backed Under29c48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc667…0359backed Under31c44.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.87450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf1…8506backed Under38c43.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Under31c43.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa15…270ebacked Under31c42.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1315…cb3fbacked Under39c41.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca2…1aa0backed Over71c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.693100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe523…c6afbacked Under32c40.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Under38c38.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Under38c37.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed3…655abacked Under30c37.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under30c35.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.652030%6 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa60d…03a8backed Over72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.721643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2f8…5bf4backed Under32c32.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1019…d7cabacked Under41c31.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Over69c30.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.53666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…0d9abacked Under38c29.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5218…48d9backed Under38c29.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Over66c25.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.681963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7465…caa8backed Over71c23.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9418160.8%110 W · 71 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Over72c23.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.71070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x233c…fa66backed Over71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.13966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Over71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.83452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed Over62c17.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+123%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7990…460ebacked Over69c17.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ae…f736backed Over71c16.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a6…380bbacked Over69c15.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.