Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Volendam vs. PSV: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe2ccd14b1da052ae1aa526454d136f51c32a70930195fdd01c67cba2f6c005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 29c | 3,521$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.54 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 71c | 1,620$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.71 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,296$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.13 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 32c | 1,229$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.29 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 952.86$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.17 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 707.25$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.01 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 33c | 599.9$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 28c | 534.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 50c | 402.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 43c | 355$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…b29ebacked Under | 30c | 250.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Over | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 248.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 40c | 242.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.43 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 42c | 240$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 39c | 199.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 72c | 188.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…3842backed Under | 33c | 162.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 266 | 53.4%142 W · 124 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 71c | 152.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Over | 70c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 72c | 117.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 73c | 114.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Under | 25c | 114.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 27c | 112.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…b082backed Over | 73c | 110.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 23c | 107.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Over | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 29c | 100.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 34c | 96.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…94a7backed Over | 36c | 83.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…6521backed Over | 74c | 81.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 39c | 69.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…f53abacked Under | 30c | 69.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…f3e0backed Over | 75c | 69.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Under | 34c | 62.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 26c | 55.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 75c | 51.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…2866backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa507…4e3abacked Over | 29c | 48.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 39cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 29c | 47.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Under | 25c | 46.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 71c | 44.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…cf88backed Under | 50c | 42.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 29c | 40.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 27c | 37.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 73c | 33.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 49c | 31.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…f9a7backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 230 | 61.3%141 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed Over | 72c | 27.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 70c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…d901backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…b84abacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbc…93a8backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Over | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…8aadbacked Over | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Volendam vs. PSV: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Volendam vs. PSV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Volendam vs. PSV: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Volendam vs. PSV: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Volendam vs. PSV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.