Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0430d9242ef1b985f874379a9ba8419100c96954ca38e622e6bea79fdc6c3f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 74c | 2,098$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.66 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Yes | 27c | 1,664$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.48 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 73c | 1,137$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.12 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 24c | 935.02$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.15 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Yes | 25c | 541.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 72c | 469$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.52 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 69c | 338.02$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 73c | 319$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…27efbacked Yes | 30c | 318.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 30c | 313.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 23c | 309.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 38c | 257.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 74c | 205$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked No | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 31c | 140.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 70c | 130.42$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 46c | 125.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 125.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 32c | 116.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 40c | 95.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 26c | 88.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…1388backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 72c | 79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 74.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 70c | 70.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 62c | 49.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 28c | 47.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 42.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 69c | 29.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 77c | 23.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked No | 78c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.