Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0643b7188a8a733aa221cbb635d1a3e59434b52485eb1f925ba4911223c5f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 10,914$6,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,647.08 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 57c | 10,767$6,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,123.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 8,647$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,904.83 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Under | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 46c | 695.39$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.21 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 58c | 568.8$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.1 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 504.47$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.47 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 56c | 476.25$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.92 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 44c | 463.64$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.64 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 451.29$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 55c | 450.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.87 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 79c | 251.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 244.57$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 43c | 207.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Under | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 40c | 190.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 48c | 188.42$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 58c | 172.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 54c | 165.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -65%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 43c | 162.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 66c | 150.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…c969backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 130.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 69c | 130.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…a1b6backed Over | 31c | 128.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 122.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 46c | 119.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 50c | 100.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Under | 58c | 99.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Over | 45c | 97.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 57c | 87.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…adcebacked Under | 61c | 87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Over | 44c | 81.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 43c | 71.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 58c | 71.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Over | 41c | 65.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Under | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…3e75backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 42c | 47.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 43c | 44.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 28c | 39.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 43c | 34.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 55c | 33.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…2994backed Over | 45c | 27.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7dc1backed Under | 67c | 20.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.