MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe073c0952e47b65053fbaf29775ca2c3ac6676bb2eaec878b2f7955ff405374a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 18,621$9,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,550.02 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 10,999$5,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,848 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 4,628$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.12 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 1,667$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.48 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 1,300$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 1,160$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.32 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 63c | 929.2$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.4 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 63c | 888$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.44 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 47c | 475$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 294.02$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 52c | 267.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 217.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 77c | 190$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 19c | 122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 62c | 119.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 49c | 119.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 55c | 116.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 49c | 114.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 51c | 97.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 49c | 62.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 49c | 62.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…47eebacked Under | 44c | 42.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 61c | 31.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 53c | 24.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Over | 55c | 18.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.