MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x999f2e106bf4298563072064fc782a52a2d16fa8832336df7183aa95382c62a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 48c | 15,159$7,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,276.12 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 13,274$6,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,367.55 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 6,359$3,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937.28 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 4,734$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,163.86 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 47c | 4,697$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.48 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 4,486$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.56 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…0eaebacked Under | 53c | 3,103$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 2,213$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.66 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 53c | 1,675$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.26 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 1,471$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.24 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 1,261$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.12 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 888$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.36 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 47c | 811.88$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.58 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 791.57$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.12 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 621.6$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.57 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 518.5$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 504$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.28 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 478$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 422.85$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.74 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 40c | 376.27$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 56c | 190$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 52c | 156.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 36c | 126.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 53c | 72.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 69.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 48.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 56c | 40.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…0bfebacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 35.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 53c | 34.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 52c | 28.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Under | 52c | 25.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Over | 46c | 22.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.