MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d61456aa533972a8a5193f573dae0ef03f18c881d85f8b96f10cd5a81a6b07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 66,860$34,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,476.07 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 58,464$28,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,405.61 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 9,412$4,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,108.16 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 4,195$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.31 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 56c | 4,025$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.9 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 3,246$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.63 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 53c | 2,737$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.57 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 2,181$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.82 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 1,278$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.4 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 1,178$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.23 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 53c | 1,061$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.84 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 942.68$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.19 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 821.53$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.96 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 78c | 416.4$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 47c | 349$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.48 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 342.25$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 65c | 169.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Under | 47c | 169$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 142$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 63c | 130.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 27c | 125.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 68c | 85.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 44c | 84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 53c | 80.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 18c | 72.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…437fbacked Under | 63c | 63.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 47c | 52.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…47eebacked Under | 67c | 50.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 45c | 50.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 39c | 35.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 60c | 33.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 55c | 29.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 46c | 23.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…76c6backed Under | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 51c | 19.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 51c | 19.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 19.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.