Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe082eee34ae2c4c4382352e7d5645d4e046c3677d69f5a25a4f2badf2cec2b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 41c | 3,881$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.31 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…6871backed Yes | 39c | 857.69$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 749$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 28c | 546.95$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 59c | 459.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 382$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 47c | 376$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 320$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 310$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 308.44$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 271$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 59c | 268.74$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 260.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 222.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 43c | 207.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 206.34$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 153$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 145.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 137.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 118.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 61c | 98.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 93.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 80.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 74.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 58.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 44.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 62c | 41.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 39.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 38.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 42c | 38.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 34.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b9…1eebbacked No | 62c | 33.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 33.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…764dbacked Yes | 39c | 32.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e39ebacked Yes | 39c | 32.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…b7bdbacked Yes | 39c | 32.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 31.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 61c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 30.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee9…90dbbacked No | 62c | 30.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 30.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 40c | 30.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 62c | 29.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 28.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 38c | 28.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 62c | 28.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…0543backed No | 62c | 26.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 23.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 22.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.