Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0b42334f9ecc18d5eb3b3f1cb24d16b1600794bc8ec4fc645d49e0c94de2ba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 6c | 1,396$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 1,014$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.72 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 56c | 536.87$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 67c | 375.84$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 69c | 308.21$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 282.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 79c | 259.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 41c | 225.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 12c | 220.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 60c | 196$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 38c | 140.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 124.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 112.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 38c | 103.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 21c | 98.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 210 | 31%65 W · 145 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 78c | 77.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed Yes | 29c | 75.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 65c | 75.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 43c | 68.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 50c | 67.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 29c | 59.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 58.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 58.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 24c | 56.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 26c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 38c | 51.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 60c | 50.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 50c | 47.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 53c | 38.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 38.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 65c | 37.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 34.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 32.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1,128 | 55.4%625 W · 503 L | -30.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…c072backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…cacdbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 41c | 25.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 75c | 21.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453b…1764backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…c7cbbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 52c | 19.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…9009backed Yes | 69c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 80c | 17.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 27?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 27?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.