TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, Nongshim Red Force
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,060
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,060 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Gen.G57c7,267$4,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.7144550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Nongshim Red Force41c6,301$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.2254353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Nongshim Red Force43c5,795$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,491.9967056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Gen.G56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Nongshim Red Force43c4,829$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.471,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked Nongshim Red Force41c3,992$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.439129.7%27 W · 64 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2690…4089backed Gen.G50c3,621$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.28850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc99…e947backed Nongshim Red Force44c3,407$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.86434.4%22 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Gen.G59c3,312$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.7753753.6%288 W · 249 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Nongshim Red Force42c2,981$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.8647047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Nongshim Red Force44c2,202$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.3326155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Nongshim Red Force44c2,102$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.845234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G56c2,005$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.31,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Gen.G57c1,931$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.165261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba8…d72bbacked Gen.G54c1,887$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.0817659.7%105 W · 71 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Nongshim Red Force42c1,505$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.021,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Gen.G57c1,446$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.81,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Gen.G58c1,266$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.610648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Gen.G57c1,112$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.9714060%84 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Gen.G59c1,075$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5823672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed Gen.G58c999.97$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.9921154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Nongshim Red Force43c695.38$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0128852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6209…4dadbacked Gen.G59c686.52$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.47742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Gen.G60c595.13$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.8310351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Gen.G57c584.52$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.341,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2056…2189backed Nongshim Red Force45c580.2$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d7…dacfbacked Gen.G62c570.11$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.228965.1%188 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf681…9b77backed Nongshim Red Force47c546.06$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.652030%6 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-50.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Gen.G52c518.35$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.151,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cca…c501backed Nongshim Red Force42c511.56$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.852828.6%8 W · 20 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-41.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked Gen.G58c503.72$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.569738.1%37 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Nongshim Red Force43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21557945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Nongshim Red Force41c499.99$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.991,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Gen.G59c495.97$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.351,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Gen.G57c487.1$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4528843.8%126 W · 162 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Nongshim Red Force42c482.6$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6951160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ef…b4f0backed Gen.G57c480.45$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.591942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Gen.G56c476.86$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8226856%150 W · 118 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Nongshim Red Force42c463.3$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5812349.6%61 W · 62 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Gen.G60c411.53$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.611,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Gen.G61c398.27$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.682,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Nongshim Red Force42c397.64$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.019435.1%33 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x321d…d0acbacked Gen.G59c390.16$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9712462.9%78 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Gen.G58c341.2$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.35160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Gen.G59c330.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5626645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Gen.G59c330.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5611753%62 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Gen.G59c330.48$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.532253.1%171 W · 151 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4775…0bcebacked Gen.G59c330.48$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Gen.G59c330.48$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.527247.8%130 W · 142 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Gen.G58c300.98$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4114154.6%77 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Gen.G59c292.62$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.977954.4%43 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Gen.G57c272.78$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2985746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Gen.G59c254.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.388749.4%43 W · 44 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Gen.G59c247.97$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.678967.4%60 W · 29 L+13.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed Nongshim Red Force44c224.67$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8511443%49 W · 65 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x500f…4c28backed Nongshim Red Force43c224.6$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5818849.5%93 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Gen.G57c222.92$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8619437.6%73 W · 121 L+0.8wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a21…ba51backed Nongshim Red Force42c222.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.622646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x045d…185dbacked Gen.G58c217.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2563458.4%370 W · 264 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Gen.G57c182.88$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6416346.6%76 W · 87 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Gen.G59c177.89$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9330255.6%168 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Nongshim Red Force42c172.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3918752.4%98 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Gen.G58c168.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.592955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked Gen.G58c168.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5944046.4%204 W · 236 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed Gen.G59c165.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7842847.9%205 W · 223 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed Gen.G59c163.67$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.14768.1%32 W · 15 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Gen.G59c161.72$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.339450.3%198 W · 196 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e09…a4edbacked Gen.G62c160.08$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4221759%128 W · 89 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Nongshim Red Force43c157.22$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.611,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Gen.G55c148.5$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2544738%170 W · 277 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Nongshim Red Force42c123$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6639056.4%220 W · 170 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb0e…b995backed Nongshim Red Force45c122.49$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.122437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Gen.G75c113.17$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2917561.1%107 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea2…370cbacked Nongshim Red Force44c109.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3247434.8%165 W · 309 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6d…804bbacked Gen.G57c102.55$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.116647%78 W · 88 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d80…a4aabacked Nongshim Red Force42c101.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.472138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-39.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Gen.G56c99.98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.991,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f1…7eeabacked Gen.G59c99.19$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6712057.5%69 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Gen.G68c97.43$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1835054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…3bbebacked Gen.G58c92.42$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8212849.2%63 W · 65 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Gen.G55c89.35$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2131650.3%159 W · 157 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Gen.G59c82.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3519159.2%113 W · 78 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Gen.G59c74.26$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4586144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed Gen.G59c73.16$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9916251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc76e…caa5backed Gen.G58c69.84$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3331352.4%164 W · 149 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b7…37b1backed Gen.G59c69.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5f…8eadbacked Nongshim Red Force44c65.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9912845.3%58 W · 70 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed Gen.G70c58.03$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4141743.9%183 W · 234 L+1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c2…a16ebacked Nongshim Red Force42c57.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1340365%262 W · 141 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f5…40d0backed Gen.G58c57.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.076063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Gen.G47c50.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbea2…2662backed Gen.G58c50.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.181392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick62cpaid+58.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2637…3db0backed Gen.G59c49.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.332850%14 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e86…7932backed Nongshim Red Force53c49.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2461150.6%309 W · 302 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Gen.G55c49.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.324356%136 W · 107 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c41…42ebbacked Gen.G58c48.74$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4712147.1%57 W · 64 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b3e…b265backed Gen.G50c48.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.252850%14 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Nongshim Red Force42c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1642055.2%232 W · 188 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d4…2059backed Nongshim Red Force44c43.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.332045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Gen.G58c42.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6513531.9%43 W · 92 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.