Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alex Molcan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1de2664660ed1b8c5bcb9f7cab2eaebd16cf2677dbb53ffe0a003acbbf5dc20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jiri Leheckaof Jiri Lehecka, Alex Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $461,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $574,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Alex Molcan | 14c | 85,298$12,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,072.84 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Alex Molcan | 13c | 29,947$3,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,910.07 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Alex Molcan | 15c | 29,274$4,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,391.08 | 750 | 46.8%351 W · 399 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Alex Molcan | 18c | 20,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Alex Molcan | 16c | 14,727$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.51 | 3,541 | 42.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L | -44.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Alex Molcan | 15c | 9,485$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.3 | 6,596 | 50.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L | +259.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Alex Molcan | 15c | 9,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 4,647 | 49.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L | +159.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Alex Molcan | 18c | 8,578$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.89 | 2,238 | 52.1%1,165 W · 1,073 L | +80.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Alex Molcan | 18c | 8,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 527 | 44.6%235 W · 292 L | +30.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alex Molcan | 14c | 7,410$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.04 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Alex Molcan | 15c | 6,954$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.41 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…6002backed Alex Molcan | 8c | 6,954$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.72 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Alex Molcan | 15c | 5,388$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.23 | 4,126 | 44.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L | +13.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Alex Molcan | 16c | 5,100$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.95 | 450 | 36%162 W · 288 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 3,912$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5,199 | 28.8%1,496 W · 3,703 L | -18.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Alex Molcan | 18c | 3,347$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.5 | 1,844 | 45.7%843 W · 1,001 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Alex Molcan | 14c | 2,317$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.35 | 1,143 | 46.4%530 W · 613 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Alex Molcan | 15c | 2,196$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.4 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Alex Molcan | 16c | 2,144$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.51 | 1,958 | 43.7%856 W · 1,102 L | -21.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 2,104$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.76 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Alex Molcan | 19c | 2,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,505 | 37.7%568 W · 937 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Alex Molcan | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110b…4228backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 1,650$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Alex Molcan | 16c | 1,530$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.64 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 1,309$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.71 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Alex Molcan | 12c | 1,307$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 4,875 | 41.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L | -77.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Alex Molcan | 16c | 1,113$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.83 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,143 | 41.3%472 W · 671 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…85ccbacked Alex Molcan | 8c | 999.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 903.94$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 783 | 36%282 W · 501 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Alex Molcan | 17c | 842.62$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Alex Molcan | 16c | 826.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Alex Molcan | 11c | 794.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 2,696 | 47.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L | +46.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…3653backed Alex Molcan | 5c | 685.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Alex Molcan | 15c | 676.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 3,187 | 48.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L | -46.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…3976backed Alex Molcan | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Alex Molcan | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2,212 | 42.9%948 W · 1,264 L | +34.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Alex Molcan | 2c | 541.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Alex Molcan | 18c | 500.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 1,638 | 48.2%789 W · 849 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Molcan | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Alex Molcan | 19c | 449.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 1,692 | 48.8%826 W · 866 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Alex Molcan | 18c | 391.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 1,842 | 44.8%825 W · 1,017 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 380$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 990 | 49.4%489 W · 501 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Alex Molcan | 9c | 368.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…fa95backed Alex Molcan | 15c | 335.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Alex Molcan | 16c | 312$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Alex Molcan | 15c | 265.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 6,740 | 48.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L | +58.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Alex Molcan | 17c | 259.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 828 | 47.3%392 W · 436 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…97bcbacked Alex Molcan | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 240.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Alex Molcan | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 240$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1,534 | 42.4%651 W · 883 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Jiri Lehecka | 80c | 203$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 954 | 55.5%529 W · 425 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Alex Molcan | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Alex Molcan | 9c | 186.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 288 | 48.3%139 W · 149 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alex Molcan | 10c | 186.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Alex Molcan | 14c | 166.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 356 | 49.4%176 W · 180 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Alex Molcan | 16c | 160.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fab…3cabbacked Alex Molcan | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…36f6backed Alex Molcan | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 128.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Alex Molcan | 17c | 111.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 789 | 57.8%456 W · 333 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Alex Molcan | 17c | 109.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 441 | 65.3%288 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e0…3488backed Alex Molcan | 12c | 103.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Alex Molcan | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,540 | 49.2%758 W · 782 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alex Molcan | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Alex Molcan | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,442 | 35.8%874 W · 1,568 L | -29.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 98.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dd…d204backed Alex Molcan | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Alex Molcan | 16c | 81.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 130 | 63.1%82 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…61b6backed Alex Molcan | 16c | 70.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b1…bf04backed Alex Molcan | 16c | 64.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Alex Molcan | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Alex Molcan | 19c | 57.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Jiri Lehecka | 79c | 20.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 267 | 64.8%173 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Jiri Lehecka | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alex Molcanthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs MolcanLehecka won
- Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)Lehecka won
- Set Handicap: Lehecka (-2.5) vs Molcan (+2.5)Lehecka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.