TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

Mauthausen: Francesco Maestrelli vs Miguel Damas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miguel Damasof Francesco Maestrelli, Miguel Damas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,607

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,460 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde9f…d43cbacked Miguel Damas28c6,575$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,706.996,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Francesco Maestrelli44c4,852$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.8171729.8%214 W · 503 L-39.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Miguel Damas65c2,898$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.828,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Francesco Maestrelli38c2,632$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00053655.4%297 W · 239 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e3e…7d88backed Francesco Maestrelli38c2,556$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9808236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Miguel Damas48c2,515$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.8354345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Francesco Maestrelli65c2,486$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.047,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Miguel Damas29c1,731$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.7710655.7%59 W · 47 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x910c…8decbacked Francesco Maestrelli77c1,300$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0011346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed Francesco Maestrelli49c1,250$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.58343.4%36 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Francesco Maestrelli19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19036661.7%226 W · 140 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Francesco Maestrelli27c938.64$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0568026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Francesco Maestrelli47c937.25$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4392,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Francesco Maestrelli51c929.6$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.995,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Miguel Damas50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40058639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Miguel Damas58c748.86$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.323,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Miguel Damas71c554.69$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1937741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Miguel Damas22c500$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.7145445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Francesco Maestrelli78c474.99$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.4913946.8%65 W · 74 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Francesco Maestrelli23c451.76$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.334,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Miguel Damas24c385.04$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.241,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Miguel Damas43c385$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.0217933%59 W · 120 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Miguel Damas68c377.67$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.532,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miguel Damas59c353.27$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.84,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa349…81ecbacked Francesco Maestrelli50c316.47$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.242030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Francesco Maestrelli21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6327931.9%89 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Miguel Damas25c283.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.141,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Francesco Maestrelli48c278.87$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Miguel Damas39c257.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.081,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…3214backed Francesco Maestrelli25c214.74$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.838422.4%86 W · 298 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Francesco Maestrelli28c202.16$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6385348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Miguel Damas27c189.51$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5313033.8%44 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Miguel Damas25c179.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6263052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…d51ebacked Francesco Maestrelli30c176.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5314325.9%37 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Francesco Maestrelli67c173.62$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.354,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Francesco Maestrelli32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027147.2%128 W · 143 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Francesco Maestrelli50c139.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.870456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Francesco Maestrelli69c137.68$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Francesco Maestrelli37c122.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Miguel Damas75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695b…36c8backed Francesco Maestrelli78c99.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.982055%11 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Miguel Damas53c99.77$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.593,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Francesco Maestrelli65c95.35$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9842344.2%187 W · 236 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Francesco Maestrelli66c83.13$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8751339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miguel Damas47c79.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.947,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1852…76ccbacked Francesco Maestrelli58c77.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Miguel Damas33c76.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.121,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cec…6406backed Francesco Maestrelli50c76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f6…af63backed Miguel Damas34c74.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2118033.9%61 W · 119 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Miguel Damas28c70.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4531339.9%125 W · 188 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a3…3b73backed Miguel Damas46c65.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.226349.2%31 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Miguel Damas32c60.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.081,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb20…bea0backed Francesco Maestrelli68c60.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0814132.6%46 W · 95 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed Francesco Maestrelli52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.225751.8%133 W · 124 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Miguel Damas35c56.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9897745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1760…1702backed Francesco Maestrelli78c51.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Miguel Damas35c50.54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.851,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Miguel Damas57c46.03$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9948652.1%253 W · 233 L-1.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c36…ac3ebacked Miguel Damas46c45.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.651040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Francesco Maestrelli66c44.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3988560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Miguel Damas48c40.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.192,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Miguel Damas34c40.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7214443.1%62 W · 82 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Miguel Damas47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3955360.4%334 W · 219 L+32.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Francesco Maestrelli75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306573.8%48 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Miguel Damas29c37.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2960355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Miguel Damas34c36.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.121,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Francesco Maestrelli42c35.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8631563.5%200 W · 115 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Francesco Maestrelli66c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.133346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa434…e508backed Francesco Maestrelli32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Francesco Maestrelli66c30.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.441,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b3e…ae5bbacked Francesco Maestrelli66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4da5…5a52backed Miguel Damas43c30.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.23650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2142…e744backed Miguel Damas69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.33100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Francesco Maestrelli58c29.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.386,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74af…bc8bbacked Francesco Maestrelli76c28.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.568872.7%64 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miguel Damas57c27.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.688,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2c…b275backed Francesco Maestrelli58c27.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d30…89ccbacked Francesco Maestrelli75c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017450%87 W · 87 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb92f…58c4backed Francesco Maestrelli75c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030653.3%163 W · 143 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4284…e430backed Miguel Damas47c25.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Francesco Maestrelli68c20.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1458067.8%393 W · 187 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca2…2c62backed Francesco Maestrelli54c20.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c5…bf75backed Francesco Maestrelli64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102962.1%18 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f8…280cbacked Francesco Maestrelli78c14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.