Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe23bf7997d8fe3d89515013d2cb86c6f9359640265996b08912ec94aaed5df43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 707.16$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.96 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 613.29$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.71 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 481.78$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 478.85$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 51c | 354.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 51c | 315.88$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 45c | 268.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 49c | 210.51$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 48c | 187.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 64c | 157$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 47c | 155.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 133.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 132.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 54c | 122$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 104$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 50c | 99.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 93.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 50c | 74.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 61c | 72.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 71.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 49c | 65.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 55.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 74c | 53.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 53.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 51c | 47.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 45.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 45.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 54c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 53c | 38.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0847…3480backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 34.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 34.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 38c | 32.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 50c | 23.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 53c | 22.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 49c | 21.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 55c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 21.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed Yes | 51c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…8d1cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…04d3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 19.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.