TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Downof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,694 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Up75c10,500$7,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,919.9994240.2%379 W · 563 L-69.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Down36c7,415$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,760.447244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Up63c5,326$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,356.877960.8%48 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Down18c3,638$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,965.630839%120 W · 188 L+20.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Up1c3,047$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8629264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Up10c2,290$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.82956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Down44c2,104$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.6231034.8%108 W · 202 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e1…0458backed Up50c1,920$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.711520%3 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Down54c1,819$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.847847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e58…4344backed Up48c1,721$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.213540%14 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Up67c1,656$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.426521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…3ff6backed Down49c1,259$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.191353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Up42c1,245$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5283135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked Up2c1,200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a17…8df6backed Up72c1,086$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.813435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Down67c1,004$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.46977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+52.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Down60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-62.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7b8…0d21backed Down40c958.54$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.895650%28 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Up53c900$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Up69c838.62$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.634254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down13c830.97$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.6815421.4%33 W · 121 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x269e…4dcbbacked Down38c822.78$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Up3c792.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.081,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe286…7735backed Down68c782.04$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…17f4backed Down49c759$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.091330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Down18c732.7$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.832927.6%8 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c32…d685backed Up71c712.12$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up48c687.41$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.177234.7%25 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa796…cd33backed Up50c686.72$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4a…8a46backed Up51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011951.3%61 W · 58 L-11.3wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe215…a3d9backed Up78c587.45$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.6220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Up40c570.8$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.327932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Up36c524.91$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.11,28624.2%311 W · 975 L-58.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe105…185bbacked Down41c446.1$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.282958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd78…837bbacked Up56c444.46$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfac2…f35fbacked Down68c425.63$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.851442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Up51c421.53$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.7115020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3221…f1bebacked Up4c416.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8cc…015bbacked Up54c400$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2141861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08bf…df57backed Up74c395.08$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.71855.6%10 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick72cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd71c…20b3backed Down36c349.43$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.133545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Up7c344.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.893815.8%6 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf76a…b506backed Up70c334.55$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.991643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Down31c321$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.779422.3%21 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked Down25c302.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.94728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down57c301.91$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9811836.4%43 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cff…97f7backed Down44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1682100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+89.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6349…6713backed Down42c296.87$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.171729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-50%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Up75c270.38$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.014768.1%32 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xced4…5055backed Down18c265.16$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.891315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ea…464cbacked Up67c253$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.5250%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x11e7…f559backed Down32c235.62$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.154047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Up34c209$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.794228.6%12 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+84.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked Up49c204$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.962450%12 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Down32c202$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.431136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfff1…5e20backed Down21c200$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1591450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c12…3d74backed Down20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aac…9603backed Down66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd658…2003backed Up52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd640…480cbacked Down17c192.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.153941%16 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Down65c165.47$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4436950.7%187 W · 182 L+16.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe62c…adc5backed Down61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…f61ebacked Down34c146.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.194226.2%11 W · 31 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Down48c142$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8411133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Down19c107.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7930543.6%133 W · 172 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down50c104$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,05134.7%365 W · 686 L-93.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae79…5322backed Up48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Up50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5276…800dbacked Down46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41c…5bd3backed Down36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647356.2%41 W · 32 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed Down59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4125661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c96…9366backed Down18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b3…3ffebacked Down49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fd…bc8abacked Down27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b9b…ab53backed Down31c94.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed Down46c74.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7811838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c1b…63ddbacked Up29c74.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bc8…adf7backed Up62c74.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.668459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07a9…2ab0backed Up55c54.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.982445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81d1…b42cbacked Down50c54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc254…1e3bbacked Down65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…857ebacked Down70c45.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.532665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabcf…17b7backed Up65c44.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.823046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Up64c43.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.253884.2%32 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x69f4…43ddbacked Down50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Down25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef4…be5dbacked Up71c39.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb48…17d7backed Up79c36.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked Up72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42544%11 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe41e…5aa1backed Up75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc044…2d08backed Up58c18.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.552055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.