TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs Facundo Acosta

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Facundo Acostaof Gustavo Heide, Facundo Acosta
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,353 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa4a…ad2fbacked Gustavo Heide0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Facundo Acosta56c11,137$6,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,889.6494068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Facundo Acosta53c8,891$4,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.2533556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Gustavo Heide41c5,642$2,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.4111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Gustavo Heide45c4,306$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,947.638,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Gustavo Heide48c3,427$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65021244.3%94 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gustavo Heide19c3,218$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.157,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Facundo Acosta60c1,676$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.861,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…61e5backed Facundo Acosta32c1,552$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.2411547%54 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Gustavo Heide63c1,525$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.766139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Gustavo Heide11c1,374$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.464,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Facundo Acosta47c1,320$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.482,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Gustavo Heide27c1,066$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.472,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Gustavo Heide53c1,039$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.725,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02bb…6c9cbacked Gustavo Heide8c1,038$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Gustavo Heide46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46053843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Facundo Acosta22c988.62$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.6217744.1%78 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44cb…aa2bbacked Facundo Acosta57c988.51$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-37.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Gustavo Heide46c818.99$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.741,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Facundo Acosta52c751.61$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.771,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Facundo Acosta34c678.67$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.6730225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Facundo Acosta57c602.64$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.0430339.9%121 W · 182 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked Gustavo Heide3c567.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3522020%44 W · 176 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Facundo Acosta50c460.67$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.334,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Gustavo Heide54c452.11$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.954,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Gustavo Heide31c450.85$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.888,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…a7dbbacked Facundo Acosta24c416.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.674344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Gustavo Heide11c375.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.321,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Facundo Acosta38c363.26$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.717,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Facundo Acosta46c305.34$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8854345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Facundo Acosta51c303$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.177,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Facundo Acosta53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1419545.3%43 W · 52 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Gustavo Heide44c222.2$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.777,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Facundo Acosta54c212.96$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9664350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Facundo Acosta55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8225257.9%146 W · 106 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Gustavo Heide64c177.44$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.32,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Gustavo Heide21c171$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.972,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked Gustavo Heide14c160.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2353736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Gustavo Heide47c148.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7043449.1%213 W · 221 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Gustavo Heide60c143.35$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.516,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Facundo Acosta51c121.29$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.834,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Gustavo Heide43c114.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.464,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Gustavo Heide47c107.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6430847.7%147 W · 161 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d18…6f62backed Facundo Acosta53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4756062.5%350 W · 210 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Gustavo Heide47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Gustavo Heide16c99.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7137058.6%217 W · 153 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Facundo Acosta51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef51…263fbacked Gustavo Heide36c90.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.583116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b59…2044backed Facundo Acosta57c87.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.937668.4%52 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Gustavo Heide33c86.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.833,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Facundo Acosta41c79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6194549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Gustavo Heide46c78.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1715040%60 W · 90 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Facundo Acosta52c76.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.917,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Facundo Acosta52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Gustavo Heide37c71.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.591,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b04…f467backed Gustavo Heide49c67.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.963542.9%15 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Gustavo Heide53c65.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.816,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732d…f413backed Facundo Acosta46c64.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.624355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Gustavo Heide45c63.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.432853%174 W · 154 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Gustavo Heide48c63.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304461.4%27 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Gustavo Heide47c62.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.431,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Facundo Acosta48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.559440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…1e80backed Facundo Acosta55c61.47$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.476953.6%37 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae0…2423backed Gustavo Heide75c60.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-74.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked Facundo Acosta40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3613545.2%61 W · 74 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Gustavo Heide46c59.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.593,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Gustavo Heide78c59.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8291880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Gustavo Heide19c54.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.441,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Gustavo Heide47c52.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4318148.1%87 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ec…1cc8backed Facundo Acosta54c51.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8532333.4%108 W · 215 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Facundo Acosta50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde2…db05backed Gustavo Heide40c49.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5de…88dabacked Facundo Acosta21c48.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4714156%79 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Facundo Acosta39c46.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.074,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d96…0b38backed Facundo Acosta60c46.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071f…92bdbacked Gustavo Heide69c46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.741,07673.8%794 W · 282 L+41.1wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Gustavo Heide42c45.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0313051.5%67 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Facundo Acosta32c44.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.391,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Gustavo Heide50c40.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3270456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Gustavo Heide49c40.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.949749.9%248 W · 249 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae75…e41cbacked Gustavo Heide51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Facundo Acosta47c39.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.044,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Gustavo Heide46c39.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.011,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Gustavo Heide41c38.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.612,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Facundo Acosta63c36.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.561145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Gustavo Heide48c36.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2157447.7%274 W · 300 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd33…d235backed Facundo Acosta47c32.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.171457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Gustavo Heide48c31.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516258.6%95 W · 67 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c0f…b0ecbacked Facundo Acosta40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1812734.6%44 W · 83 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Facundo Acosta38c28.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.951,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Gustavo Heide43c28.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1473549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3be7…ac18backed Gustavo Heide44c27.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Gustavo Heide74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5c…e5aabacked Gustavo Heide77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Facundo Acosta56c25.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.427244.4%32 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Gustavo Heide47c24.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4574346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8495…df87backed Gustavo Heide79c19.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7910266.7%68 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6918…9c48backed Gustavo Heide79c17.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.