Tennis · resolved market
Cincinnati Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jesper de Jong
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe36934b5a0432c027f5bc2c1be1ecb655e718ccc95059fd717d74687f1637116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alex Michelsenof Alex Michelsen, Jesper de Jong
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 33,333$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.93 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Jesper de Jong | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 9,612$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.14 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jesper de Jong | 9c | 4,871$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.19 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 4,537$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.87 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Jesper de Jong | 9c | 4,387$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.74 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 4,167$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Jesper de Jong | 8c | 3,319$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.53 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Jesper de Jong | 14c | 3,305$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.44 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Jesper de Jong | 8c | 3,204$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.06 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Jesper de Jong | 2c | 2,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Jesper de Jong | 14c | 2,400$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.09 | 369 | 46.9%173 W · 196 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Jesper de Jong | 19c | 2,288$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.67 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jesper de Jong | 13c | 1,819$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.15 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Jesper de Jong | 8c | 1,800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Jesper de Jong | 19c | 1,661$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.57 | 346 | 55.2%191 W · 155 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Jesper de Jong | 8c | 1,531$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Jesper de Jong | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Jesper de Jong | 17c | 1,492$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.17 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Jesper de Jong | 16c | 1,268$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.74 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Jesper de Jong | 8c | 1,239$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 1,078$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.06 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Jesper de Jong | 21c | 925.3$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Jesper de Jong | 8c | 900.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…9050backed Jesper de Jong | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Jesper de Jong | 14c | 812.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…f4f8backed Jesper de Jong | 7c | 775.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…fe54backed Jesper de Jong | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 653.22$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Jesper de Jong | 18c | 634.57$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Jesper de Jong | 13c | 584.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…fe98backed Jesper de Jong | 13c | 576.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 495.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 399.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 359 | 38.2%137 W · 222 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…3d9bbacked Jesper de Jong | 12c | 362.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Jesper de Jong | 20c | 356.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Jesper de Jong | 19c | 349.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 304.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 275.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…30f2backed Jesper de Jong | 5c | 252.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…5fb9backed Jesper de Jong | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…a555backed Jesper de Jong | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 238$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Jesper de Jong | 18c | 216$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…46f9backed Jesper de Jong | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…5da8backed Jesper de Jong | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ca…3797backed Jesper de Jong | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8101…663ebacked Jesper de Jong | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 31%27 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd7…1c4fbacked Jesper de Jong | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…c45cbacked Jesper de Jong | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…96f4backed Jesper de Jong | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e9…fb58backed Jesper de Jong | 9c | 155.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Jesper de Jong | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…dd03backed Alex Michelsen | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…b1b1backed Jesper de Jong | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 36.1%183 W · 324 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd762…bb9ebacked Jesper de Jong | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…fad1backed Jesper de Jong | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…b9b6backed Jesper de Jong | 12c | 105.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Jesper de Jong | 19c | 104.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Jesper de Jong | 20c | 104.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed Jesper de Jong | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Jesper de Jong | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe780…055bbacked Jesper de Jong | 21c | 96.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Jesper de Jong | 19c | 95.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Jesper de Jong | 19c | 94.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…cc64backed Jesper de Jong | 12c | 93.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Jesper de Jong | 18c | 84.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…9ff0backed Jesper de Jong | 13c | 80.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Alex Michelsen | 80c | 56.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Jesper de Jong | 19c | 54.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Jesper de Jong | 19c | 53.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…da40backed Jesper de Jong | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 343 | 59.5%204 W · 139 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Alex Michelsen | 80c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa655…31debacked Alex Michelsen | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Alex Michelsen | 80c | 12.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jesper de Jongthis page
- Michelsen vs. Jong: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5)Michelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.